2-minute read
Do you ever feel like your kids have acute mental superpowers over you? Like they’re sitting behind a control panel in your brain?
That’s actually possible. Maybe even likely.
My 3-year-old son asks me every day to play music but then complains about the noise. What’s that all about?
I couldn’t tell you.
And why does my 1-year-old daughter insist on only wearing her right shoe? Any idea what her approach is with that?
Maybe she takes inspiration from Happy Gilmore’s caddy?
I’m just resigned to the fact that there isn’t an answer for every question in life.
Here’s a question for you: when is this recession we’ve been hearing about forever going to hit?
Quite the left turn there.
Children are impossible to get to the bottom of. The economy seems more reasonable.
Well, here’s one relevant data point:
4.3% seems low, right?
Yes, it’s low by historical standards. But it’s trending in the wrong direction. And some economists view this trend as likely heading towards a recession.
Eesh.
But then you have this:
But does this really matter?
The United States has a consumer-driven economy. Consumer spending – you and I buying clothes, taking trips, eating out, etc. – accounts for almost 70% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It definitely matters.
So how are people going to buy all this stuff when they’re getting laid off?
Valid question. If the labor market continues to weaken, it’s likely consumer spending will fall. A decline in consumer spending won’t bode well for the economy.
Do you think the labor market will continue to weaken and lead to a recession?
The economists I follow are torn on this. There is a camp that sees a mild recession in 2025 while others aren’t willing to go that far.
Way to dodge the question.
I realize that. But I also realize how ridiculously difficult it is to predict economic cycles. Keep in mind we were seeing headlines like this almost two years ago:
Fair. I’ll cut you some slack.
The economy is a mixed bag right now. Some bright spots (earnings growth, consumer spending) and some areas of concern (rising unemployment, decreasing industrial production). Anyone telling you that the economy is absolutely wonderful or downright awful has an agenda.
Are there any solutions to those areas of concern?
Many economists would start with the Fed lowering interest rates. While that seems like the prudent move, I’d caution you to not lean on the Fed for some cure-all. Rarely are there silver bullets for economic issues.
I’m starting to think children might be easier to predict than the economy.
Time will tell, my friend.