2-minute read
You have a friend who can never find a girl who’s quite good enough for him?
Hmm, I wouldn’t call Tiger Woods a close friend, but it still baffles my mind that he screwed this up:
I have a buddy who would leave every date with the most asinine critiques. “She’s cool but her teeth didn’t match her face.” “I really liked her but her uncle seems like a loose cannon.” “Awesome chick except for her taste in movies.”
A man can’t strive for perfection?
Strive away! Just keep in mind that the average lifespan of a dog is 11 years.[1]
What has you so riled up? To be frank, I don’t think Tiger’s ex was ever making her way to a barstool near you.
Fortunately, it’s not women. I locked that up years ago. It’s the stock market.
Aren’t we at all-time highs?
That’s the point I’m trying to make!
Which is…?
Here’s the latest weekly results from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey. This is a widely publicized survey of do-it-yourself investors dating back to 1987. It asks its 170,000 members this question every week: “What Direction Do You Feel The Stock Market Will Be In The Next 6 Months?”
What was the latest reading?
Here it is:
So only around 31% of respondents are optimistic on the market? Interesting.
Let’s throw some context around the current environment:
What’s wrong with that?
Nothing really. The economy is growing fairly well, inflation has moderated (thank God), and the labor market is hanging in there. All the while the stock market has reached 19 all-time highs this year.[7]
You’d think that survey would have more than 31% of bullish respondents. Why the pessimism?
Number one, I think the tariff policies put into place have thrown everyone for a HUGE loop. Let’s use those survey results one more time:
What’s the significance here?
We’re comparing the survey results of January 2008 to March 2025. Do I need to refresh your memory on the year 2008?
I watched The Big Short. All good.
So at the height of panic during the ’08 Great Financial Crisis sentiment was slightly more hopeful than it was 5 months ago. LET ME BE CLEAR: THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM WAS DISINTEGRATING INTO A PILE OF CRAP…YET THERE WERE MORE BELIEVERS IN THE STOCK MARKET.
And you attribute all that pessimism to tariffs? Aren’t you forgetting the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Russian-Ukraine war, Federal Reserve independence in question, the bad jobs report, etc.?
Yes, I acknowledge those risks to the market. And they may soon cause stocks to fall. But we need to be honest with ourselves.
How so?
A perfect investing environment does not exist. The news will be bad when times are good, and the news will be deafeningly bad when times are bad. If you ask for the world, you’ll end up with a Perkins waitress and divorce papers. Just ask Tiger.
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[1] Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_in_dogs#:~:text=A%20major%20study%20of%20dog,12%20years%20and%208%20months.
[2] Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-preliminary
[3] Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
[4] Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
[5] As of August 27, 2025
[6] Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/
[7] Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4490118-market-optimism-continues-as-the-sp-500-tallies-19-record-highs-in-2025